Wow...maybe it's the fact that I'm so involved in what's going on in the East more than any other division but this one is unbelievably tough to call. I'll give it a shot though.
New York Yankees (98-64): For any Yankees fans offended by the predicted 5-win drop, go look at Baseball Prospectus, which had the Yankees winning only 90 games and finishing third in the East. No, like it or not the Yankees still have the best team in baseball (on paper at least). It was certainly a busy off-season in the Big Apple, but I do not personally believe the Yanks actually made themselves better. Johnny Damon was always under-appreciated during his tenure in pinstripes, mostly because of the big names he played alongside. However, when stats and intangibles are compared, the Yankees really gain or lose nothing in essentially swapping Damon for Granderson. They do, however, lose some power in the lineup with the losses of Hideki Matsui and Melky Cabrera. Sure it is not substantial, but it's something. Finally, the team has what appears to be a very weak bullpen. Going forward, I believe all of these things, combined with aging, will bring them back to Earth. They still win the division though.
Boston Red Sox (98-64): Wait, you mean the Jason Bay-less Sox will get...better!? Absolutely. Firstly, Beantown fans might remember the first two months of 2009 when Tim Wakefield was the only thing keeping the starting rotation above water. Well this year look for Josh Beckett in his contract year to have a great season. Beyond that look for the ever more-experienced Jon Lester and new member John Lackey to buckle down for a great first half. Add to that the potential resurgence of an apparently healthy Dice-K and the probability of the ageless wonder Tim Wakefield being solid again, and the prospects look much brighter. Plus, the defense is greatly improved, the menial bullpen-depth moves should pay dividends, and a motivated David Ortiz along with new hires Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron will improve the offense. This team is better than you think. So much for a bridge year.
Tampa Bay Rays (95-67): 2009 was a fluke. And those things that were seriously wrong last year were addressed in the very few moves made by the Rays this off-season. Their highly-touted closer-by-committee plan failed miserably in 2009, so they addressed that in acquiring Rafael Soriano to handle the responsibility. Dioner Navarro fell apart in 2009, so they brought in Kelly Shoppach to shore up the position. And with an aging Gabe Kapler in right field, Matt Joyce should start moving into the starting role. Look for the Rays to rebound and for their incredibly potent offense, which features phenom Evan Longoria, 2009 breakout stars Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett, along with Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena (both in contract years) to explode in 2010.
Baltimore Orioles (82-80): If you believe that an 18-win increase for the O's is too much, then I believe you haven't been paying attention. Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, Luke Scott, Matt Wieters, Miguel Tejada, Brian Roberts. These are all potent offensive players. Furthermore, this is a team that will field the ball exceptionally well. Their bullpen also looks to be drastically improved in 2010 with the addition of Mike Gonzalez to hold down the closer's role. So that brings us to the ever-present issue of Baltimore's rotation. It's better than you think. Kevin Millwood has been brought in to bolster a young staff. Behind him is Jeremy Guthrie, who the team hopes can take the next step this year. And after that the next three starters are all young studs that can be wildly successful in the majors (Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz, and Chris Tillman). It won't be their year yet, but this team is drastically improved from the dismal squads of the past few years. They are no joke.
Toronto Blue Jays (64-98): Two words: Roy Halladay. It cannot be understated what this man meant to Toronto. Not only was he as sure a thing as you can find in baseball every fifth day, but he was also a great man to have atop a rotation filled by young pitchers. Without his leadership and without him anchoring the rotation this team has no clear ace and no clear direction. They will certainly score some runs with players like Aaron Hill and Adam Lind, but this team is quite simply, not in a good place. It's rebuilding time in Canada. I just hope for their sake's that the Olympic nostalgia can get them through the season.
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